Congressman Dan Crenshaw, a four-term Republican representing Texas and a decorated former Navy SEAL, was defeated in the March 3 Republican primary by Texas State Representative Steve Toth. The upset, which saw Toth capture a decisive 15-percentage-point lead according to unofficial returns, marked the first time an incumbent House Republican lost renomination in the 2026 midterm election cycle. Crenshaw's loss has been widely described as stunning, particularly as he had previously sailed through primaries with double-digit leads and had outspent Toth by $1.3 million, according to reporting from Houston Public Media.
Following his unexpected defeat, Congressman Crenshaw appeared on CBS News’s “Face the Nation” with anchor Margaret Brennan to discuss the outcome. He attributed his loss primarily to the pervasive influence of online misinformation and targeted smears. "I’m a unique Republican," Crenshaw stated, elaborating, "I’ve been the target of online smears and conspiracies for a very long time. My election was basically a product of that."
Crenshaw pointed to the low primary turnout as a contributing factor, suggesting it made the electorate more susceptible to false narratives. "You have about 20% of Republican voters bothering to even vote at a primary, and then you have dozens of online smears and conspiracies that people were going into the voting booth actually believing," he explained. He cited specific examples, such as voters "believing that I was worth millions of dollars from insider trading." Despite efforts to counter these claims, Crenshaw noted their persistence. "Doesn’t matter how many times we thought we had debunked that, or that other people and influencers and what [not] have not have debunked it, all of these things, people still went in believing it," he said. The Texas Tribune also reported that Crenshaw had previously remarked that "a large part of this election was about the power of clickbait," and that "memes became truth."
Beyond online sources, Crenshaw extended blame to the Democratic Party, alleging their active involvement in amplifying negative narratives. "Democrats spent almost a million dollars also pushing these smears on television," Crenshaw claimed. He suggested this spending swayed Republican voters: "So Republican voters are going to the voting booth believing what a Democrat told them on TV based on a smear headline written by a liberal reporter in D.C." Crenshaw concluded his remarks by broadening his message, stating, "The lesson is not just for Republican politicians. It’s the lesson for Republican voters," urging Americans to question the veracity of information encountered online or via mail.
The primary contest was also notable for its alignment with broader intra-party dynamics. President Donald Trump, who endorsed 18 of the 19 incumbent House Republicans from Texas, notably did not endorse Congressman Crenshaw prior to the March 3 primary. As of the time of Crenshaw’s CBS interview nearly two weeks after the election, President Trump had still not endorsed Steve Toth, despite his victory.
Conversely, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas publicly endorsed Steve Toth, a move that garnered national attention. Toth's campaign also benefited from significant media exposure through an interview with Tucker Carlson in October 2025. During this interview, both Toth and Carlson criticized Crenshaw for allegedly failing to represent the "America First" movement and for being insufficiently tough on illegal immigration. They also questioned Crenshaw’s hawkish stance on Russia's aggression in Ukraine, with Carlson specifically raising concerns about what he termed Crenshaw’s "suspicious skills in the stock market." The interview accumulated over 700,000 views on YouTube within five months, indicating its reach among a segment of the conservative base.
Adding another layer to the narrative, a video surfaced in February 2025 showing Crenshaw making threatening remarks about Carlson. In the footage, Crenshaw was heard saying, “No, seriously, I’ll kill him. He’s the worst person I’ve ever met,” referring to past exchanges with Carlson on the social media platform X. Carlson addressed these comments during his October 2025 interview with Toth, stating, "I don’t think Dan Crenshaw is the worst person in the world or anything like that. I feel sorry for Dan Crenshaw, he’s clearly a very troubled guy."
The primary outcome has ignited discussions within the Republican Party regarding the influence of online narratives, the role of media personalities, and the ongoing debate over loyalty to the President and the "America First" agenda. Crenshaw's defeat underscores the challenges incumbents face when navigating an increasingly fractured media landscape and a politically charged electorate.
